Strategy Under Uncertainty Essay


What are the dangers for a (jewellery) retail shop? How could the four levels of uncertainty framework be applied to improve decision-making in your retail jewellery shop?


Shields Legend Arcade in Australia is facing problems with tough market competition. It is a start up business and in competition it is lacking behind. In this regard, the jwellery shop must follow the four levels of uncertainty to overcome the problems.

Level one: A future which is clear enough

The company can focus on the Porter’s five forces in order keep a clear vision about the strategy. A through research needs to be done about the other strategies of the market. (McRoberts, R.E. and Westfall 2014; Courtney et al. 1997)

Level two: Alternatives

For some predictable outcomes, decision analysis or game theories can be used by the manager. The jwellery shop can look forward to build more plants to increase capacity. (McRoberts, R.E. and Westfall 2014; Courtney et al. 1997).

Level three: futures

The Jewllery shop wants to enter the Indian market, the company needs to develop a limited choices of the scenarios of market, must develop scenarios which are responsible for the particular range of outcomes of future (McRoberts, R.E. and Westfall 2014; Courtney et al. 1997).

Level four: Ambiguities

The jwellery market is looking forward to compete in the emerging retailer markets; the company would face troubles in quality of gems, technologies and brands, the managers need to come out with a systematic idea to determine the fact how the market would evolve over time. The manager must also take into consideration the nature of variables which might affect the market growth. The managers must be aware about the risks and by predicting the future; they must able to indicate the considerable investments (McRoberts, R.E. and Westfall 2014; Courtney et al. 1997).

Hereby to conclude, the manager needs to come up with modern approaches by following the framework to justify the company’s problems and solve them accordingly.


Courtney, H., Kirkland, J. and Viguerie, P., 1997. Strategy under uncertainty. Harvard business review, 75(6), pp.67-79.

McRoberts, R.E. and Westfall, J.A., 2014. Effects of uncertainty in model predictions of individual tree volume on large area volume estimates. Forest Science, 60(1), pp.34-42.

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