EMS5RIE Risk Engineering Essay

Question:

A case study of risk engineering in which it should contain past incident where risk should be there and analyzed and tools required to determine and solve the risk.

Introduction

Here is the introduction into my case. What happened? Where? What industry? What is the problem related to? What tools am I going to apply? Refer to Workshop slides provided. This section may change slightly over the coming weeks.

Research and Theory on the Problem

Here you briefly go over the theory of the issue. If it was a mechanical failure, very briefly describe the type. If it was a failure related to civil engineering, maybe a tailings dam or other structure; very briefly explain this. Refer to relevant literature, a text book on the subject, or even better, a journal publication.

Specific Theory – Scientific/Engineering

If your problem is related to multiple events or theories, then break them up and describe. Number the sections accordingly [1].

Answer:

Case Study on Mechanical Failures Gas Turbine and Risk Management

Introduction

Over the past decades, various mechanical failures have been reported in line with the environmental and the thermal barrier coatings in the various industries. The effects of the failure have impacted greatly by increasing the overall degradation recorded in different mechanism studies. The effects related to the failures mainly discussed in this analysis mainly evaluated as in the gas turbine failures in the present days, gas turbines have recorded incremental application in power generation system and this mainly aims at curbing the over increasing energy deficiency worldwide. Although the turbine tends to have numerous advantages and significances in the meantime, it still has vital mechanical failures in the due course [1]. Thus, it is vital to have a mitigation approach for curbing the normalcies associated with the unexpected failures which may result from the gas turbine. In this paper, the concept of the parametric risk assessment mainly utilized in developing and hastening the magnitude as well as the risk probability resulting from the overall system failures. In the process, different concepts associated with the repairs assumptions in line with the gas turbine system decisively appraised. The key concept mainly utilized in the process is the probability of the overall failures as well as the makeable consequences associated with them. In the process, the recurrent data analysis concept often utilized in the process of developing the parametric concept. This Recurrent Data analysis concept also denoted as RDA and the overall examination mainly grounded on the reported data in line with the failure consequences [10].

Specific Theory – Scientific or Engineering

Gas turbine often denoted as the mechanical systems which tends to process large energy quantity in line with its capacity. According to Yang and Hong (2011) the utilization of the overall gas turbine in the various power generation industries have grown and increased considerably. The application of the gas turbine tends to increase across the globe and different sectors have continued to adopt the application more so in the power generation areas. Gas turbine mainly utilized in the continuous power generation process and this primarily aims at ensuring that the demands arising from energy scarcity mainly curbed decisively but the reliability as well as the low downtime mainly incorporated in this system as the key ingredients and parameters of ensuring that overall stated requirement often attained [9]. However, it important to note that gas turbine has repairable systems just like other mechanical elements and thus, risks associated with its repair are essentially unavoidable. Therefore, the mitigation concept for the process is often paramount in the processes. The key approach mainly used in alleviating the risk is the risk assessment method. This mainly aims at lowering the overall failure frequency which mainly results from the system failure in the meantime. The repair concept mainly utilized in the process has to be grounded on the assumptions. Two crucial approaches and assumption mainly used in line with the gas turbine repairs and this incorporates “as bad as old” or “as good as new” concepts. In reality, attaining the stated concept and the approaches is not ease and thus, the imperfect repair approach adopted as the integration approach and method for the overall analysis [7].

Specific Theory – Risk and Management

First and foremost, it is important to note that extreme assumptions in line with the gas turbine mechanical failures and the related risks were mainly discussed and decisively conclusions not attained in line with the practicability of the context. The assumptions give less accuracy as compared to the parametric imperfect maintenance context. This is because most of the failures recorded in the gas turbines mainly depend on the system repair history. Thus, the concept of the repairable system in line with the failure probability mainly used as the primary approach when dealing with the case of the turbine mechanical broke downs [6].

Link between Case Evidence and Theory

The results mainly obtained in the process often denote that minimal repairs tend to results in minimum risk in comparison to the imperfect as well as perfect repairs assumptions. Drawing conclusion on this indicates that the overall system repairs are paramount to avoid all the failures which often tend to result from the mechanical failures [12].

Research and Theory on the Problem

There are those failures mainly associated with the consequence analysis. Thus, it is important to adopt the consequence analysis concept in dealing with the quantification of their overall process in line with the effects of the occurrence of the failures. Some of the essential risk and the consequence associated with the gas turbine failures include repair cost, maximum demand as well as loss of the available opportunity in line with the down time [5]. Some of the failures mainly results from the overall hook up depicted in the processes demarcated due to the plant failures. Moreover, it is evidential that systems malfunctions leads to the demand of replacing them and this tend to impose additional charge as far as the time utility is concerned. In the situations where the gas turbine is utilized then there will be need to incorporate and replace it with electricity capacity and this can impact by imposing maximum demand. Furthermore, additional cost will be incurred for paying for the overall amount of electricity utilized in the process. The analysis for the overall approach mainly depicted as indicated below [4].


Solution

In the approach of solving the risks associated with the gas turbine, various steps and procedures mainly applied as the paramount considerations and concepts. First approach mainly entails the application of the failure probability using the elementary RDA technique. The other failures mainly appraised based on the failure consequences as well as quantification in step two and three respectively [4].

Failure Probability: The concept mainly grounded on the application of the parametric RDA technique. Preferably, the approach mainly grounded on the GRP model and this determines the overall rate of recurrence of the makeable system failure. This has to be recorded for designated time interval. Furthermore, the concept must incorporate the utilization of the succeeding failures as well as the effects related to the overall repairs in the process. Moreover, in this risk management and assessment, the concept of the Power Law Model also applied in line with the failure probability. Thus, the model parameters in the process will appraise grounded on the Maximum Likelihood Estimation. The approach mainly illustrated as indicated below

Thus, the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method equations used in the analysis in line with the mechanical failure mainly indicated as shown below [7].

Moreover, the analysis on the Cost Estimations in line with the Loss Opportunity mainly examined and summarized as indicated below [2].

Risk Estimation

Subsequently, it is important to perform the parametric estimation on the GRP and this has to perform in line with the type-I model at various q values. However, the setting of the overall q value mainly conducted in line with the q = 0, 0<q<1 as well as at q = 1. Thus, the denotation takes into account that repair of the system mainly conducted whenever the value of q is 1 whereas the parameters mainly considered to be in perfect state when the q value is zero. Also, the imperfect repair primarily performed when the q values lies between 1 and 0. Therefore, the analysis for the results mainly appraised as indicated in the figure below [1].

Figure showing the Failure occurrence in line with the peak demand

Also, the table below shows the TTF gas turbine analysis [6].

Risk Quantification

The analysis in line with the risk quantification mainly performed basing on the system failure as well as the production costs as well as the labor rates costs. The analysis for the overall process thereby represented and illustrated as indicated in the graph below [9].

Graph showing the Expected number of failures in line with perfect repair [11]

Conclusion

In summary, the risk assessment mainly conducted on the gas turbine in with the mechanical system failure. This was grounded on the considerable assumptions in line with the repairs and the probabilities. For the in-depth analysis, failure probability often used in the process as well as the failure consequences. Additionally, the failure probability in line with the risk evaluation grounded and applied the concept of the RDA method. The approach necessitated approach of establishing the recurrence and the frequencies of the gas turbine failure as well as in the quantification of the failures in the report in line with the data. The study established that most gas turbines tend to operate at the parametric GDC plant and the risk assessment associated with them mainly conducted as per the model. Thus, it is evidential from the analysis that minimal repair tend to lower the failure costs in the turbines. The values denoted a reduction of 28.29% as well as 8.38% as compared to the imperfect and the perfect repairs. Thus, adoption of the minimal costs is essential since it will assist in curbing and reducing the high costs associated with the overall gas turbine failures as well as the overall maintenance. Thus, it is important for the maintenance team to ensure that the minimal repair approach mainly adopted to lower the risks associated with the gas turbine mechanical breakdowns.

References

[1]J. Thornton, C. Wood, J. A. Kempton, M. Esso, M. Zonneveldt, and N. Armstrong, “Failure mechanisms of calcium magnesium aluminum silicate affected thermal barrier coatings,” J Am Ceram Soc, vol. 100, no. 6, pp. 2679–2689, Jun. 2017.

[2]M. Greenberg and K. Lowrie, "Yacov Haimes: Marrying Risk Analysis and Systems Engineering", Risk Analysis, vol. 34, no. 9, pp. 1584-1588, 2014.

[3]"Failures prediction based on performance monitoring of a gas turbine: a binary classification approach", Schedae Informaticae, no. 26, 2017.

[4]Brodov, Yu M., N. I. Grigor’ev, B. P. Zhilkin, L. V. Plotnikov, and D. S. Shestakov. "Increasing reliability of gas–air systems of piston and combined internal combustion engines by improving thermal and mechanic flow characteristics." Thermal Engineering 62, no. 14 (2015): 1038-1042.

[5]W. Maktouf and K. Sa?, "An investigation of premature fatigue failures of gas turbine blade", Engineering Failure Analysis, vol. 47, pp. 89-101, 2015.

[6]Boyce, Meherwan P. Gas turbine engineering handbook. Elsevier, 2011.

[7]C. Adams and J. Manion, "Improving Survivability of Aircraft from Uncontained Gas Turbine Engine Failures", Mechanical Engineering, vol. 133, no. 08, p. 56, 2011.

[8]Z. Korczewski, "Operational causes of fatigue failures within passages of gas turbine engines", Polish Maritime Research, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 57-61, 2010.

[9]M. Amin Abd M, R. Khan Wassa and A. Akmar Mokh, "Gas Turbine Risk Assessment Based on Different Repair Assumptions", Journal of Applied Sciences, vol. 14, no. 17, pp. 1966-1971, 2014.

[10]S. Takada, K. Abe and Y. Inagaki, "Conceptual Structure Design of High Temperature Isolation Valve for High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor", Journal of Engineering for Gas Turbines and Power, vol. 133, no. 11, p. 114501, 2011.

[11]L. Ferrari, G. Soldi, A. Bianchini and E. Dalpane, "STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF COMPONENT FAILURES: A 16-YEAR SURVEY ON MORE THAN 550 WIND TURBINES", Journal of Engineering for Gas Turbines and Power, 2018.

[12]M. Abd Majid and M. Nasir, "Multi-state System Availability Model of Electricity Generation for a Cogeneration District Cooling Plant", Asian Journal of Applied Sciences, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 431-438, 2011.

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